1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 4.05 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 6.82. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 2–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hertha BSC win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.78 – 4.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1. FC Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

1. FC Köln win25%

Draw14%

Hertha BSC win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals94%

Over 3.5 goals88%

Both teams to score90%

Correct score

2–44.7%
2–34.6%
3–44.3%
3–34.3%
2–53.8%

Recent form

1. FC Köln

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)

Hertha BSC

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-2 Hertha BSC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-04-05T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
2024-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-1 Hertha BSC (DFB Pokal)
2024-11-02T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-0 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
2023-05-12T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 5-2 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
2022-11-12T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-2 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
2022-01-09T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-1 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
2021-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-1 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
2021-05-15T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-0 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
2021-01-16T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-0 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–4.

It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.