RheinEnergieStadion · Referee Florian Exner, Germany · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.12 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Köln win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1. FC Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.12 for Werder Bremen, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–08.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 48.0% vs market 37.5%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 37.5% | 48.0% | 2.08 | +10.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 45.2% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.8% | 25.9% | 3.86 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 29.0% | 28.7% | 3.48 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.5% | 52.0% | 1.92 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Köln win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.