Avnet Arena · Referee Felix Wagner · Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.86 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.13 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives 1. FC Magdeburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Magdeburg win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
2.86 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Magdeburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlsruher SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.86 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.13 for Karlsruher SC, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–07.2%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
1. FC Magdeburg
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
Karlsruher SC
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Magdeburg win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.