Max-Morlock-Stadion · Referee Jarno Wienefeld, Germany · Analysis updated 05:51 UTC
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.76 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.13 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives 1. FC Nürnberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Nürnberg win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
2.76 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Nürnberg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Dresden away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–07.2%
- 1–16.4%
Recent form
1. FC Nürnberg
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)
Dynamo Dresden
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-07T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-03-20T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-03-31T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-10-22T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-01-29T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Nürnberg win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.