Max-Morlock-Stadion · Referee F. Lechner · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.95 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives 1. FC Nürnberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Nürnberg win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Nürnberg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hannover 96 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
1. FC Nürnberg
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)
Hannover 96
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 3-3 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-21T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-01T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-29T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-26T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-3 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-06T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-29T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-3 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-03-13T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Nürnberg win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.