1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.73 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives 1. FC Nürnberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

1. FC Nürnberg win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1. FC Nürnberg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

1. FC Nürnberg win46%

Draw21%

VfL Wolfsburg win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–18.1%
2–27.2%
1–27.0%
3–15.7%

Recent form

1. FC Nürnberg

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)

VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2019-05-04T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2018-12-14T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2017-12-19T19:45:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg (DFB Pokal)
2014-04-12T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-4 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2013-11-23T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2013-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2012-11-03T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2012-03-17T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2011-10-15T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2011-03-12T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 1. FC Nürnberg win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.