· Analysis updated 20:24 UTC
12 de Junio VH vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for 12 de Junio VH and 0.78 for Independiente F.b.c., a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives 12 de Junio VH the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
12 de Junio VH win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
12 de Junio VH home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente F.b.c. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 60.3% vs market 50.0%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +10.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 71.5% | 1.40 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 49.2% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.9% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.4% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
12 de Junio VH
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguari AC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-14T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Encarnación · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Santani · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-31T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Fernando De La Mora · 1-1 (D)
Independiente F.b.c.
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 de Junio VH · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Encarnación · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 0-4 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
- 2026-05-29T22:30:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 2-1 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
- 2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 0-0 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
- 2025-06-28T20:30:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 1-0 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
- 2024-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 0-0 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
- 2024-04-21T13:30:00.000Z · 12 de Junio VH 0-1 Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia)
Division Intermedia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santani | 29 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 57 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 56 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 54 |
| 4 | Paraguari AC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 47 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 30 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 43 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 43 |
| 8 | Benjamín Aceval | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 42 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Atlético Tembetary | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 37 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiata | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 35 |
| 12 | Fernando De La Mora | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | -10 | 34 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 30 |
| 14 | Guairena FC | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 29 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -14 | 26 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 12 de Junio VH win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.