· Analysis updated 00:23 UTC
1860 München U19 vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for 1860 München U19 and 1.37 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives 1860 München U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1860 München U19 win
69.2% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1860 München U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1860 München U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for 1860 München U19 and 1.37 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–05.8%
- 4–15.7%
- 3–05.7%
Recent form
1860 München U19
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieseck U19 · 4-0 (W)
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1860 München U19 win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.