Sportplatz Landwehrstraße · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
1880 Wasserburg vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for 1880 Wasserburg and 1.68 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives 1880 Wasserburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1880 Wasserburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Regensburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1880 Wasserburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for 1880 Wasserburg and 1.68 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
1880 Wasserburg
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kottern · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 Rosenheim · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ismaning · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erlbach · 2-2 (D)
Fortuna Regensburg
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Relegation Round table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSV Pfaffenhofen/Ilm | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | TSV 1880 Wasserburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Großbardorf | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Kottern | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Eintracht Münchberg | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Stadeln | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Seebach | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | ATSV Erlangen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 9 | Coburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 10 | Sturm Hauzenberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.