Prezero Arena · Referee Harm Osmers, Germany · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.87 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1899 Hoffenheim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 48.2% vs market 41.9%, edge +6.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +6.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.7% | 81.5% | 1.23 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.5% | 86.7% | 1.15 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 68.2% | 68.2% | 1.47 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.52 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.6% | 18.5% | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.90 | 32.8% | 31.8% | 3.14 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -6.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Hamburger SV
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-13T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2018-04-14T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2017-11-26T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2017-04-08T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2016-11-20T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 2-2 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2016-03-19T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2015-10-23T18:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2015-03-14T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
- 2014-10-19T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1899 Hoffenheim win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.