· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
1899 Hoffenheim vs Karlsruher SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2.20 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1899 Hoffenheim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Karlsruher SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 18% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2.20 for Karlsruher SC, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.3%
- 1–25.0%
Recent form
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Karlsruher SC
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Karlsruher SC (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1899 Hoffenheim win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.