SNP Arena · Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.44 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1899 Hoffenheim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.25 (model 39.7% vs market 29.0%, edge +10.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.25 | 29.0% | 39.7% | 2.52 | +10.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 75.7% | 1.32 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.2% | 40.5% | 2.47 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 4.12 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.60 | 35.5% | 35.2% | 2.84 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.8% | 59.5% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 64.8% | 1.54 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 71.0% | 60.3% | 1.66 | -10.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-23T18:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-06T17:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2024-03-16T17:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2023-10-28T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-24T19:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 2-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-25T19:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-02T13:30:00.000Z · 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.