Dietmar-Hopp Stadion · Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 1.60 for SC Freiburg W, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim W win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1899 Hoffenheim W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freiburg W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 1.60 for SC Freiburg W, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
1899 Hoffenheim W
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Koln W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Munich W · 1-1 (D)
SC Freiburg W
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGS Essen W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carl Zeiss Jena W · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Union Berlin W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | SC Freiburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1899 Hoffenheim W win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.