Etimesgut Belediyesi Atatürk Stadı · Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
1926 Polatlı Belediye vs Bursa Yıldırımspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1926 Polatlı Belediye and 1.26 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Bursa Yıldırımspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1926 Polatlı Belediye home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bursa Yıldırımspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursa Yıldırımspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for 1926 Polatlı Belediye and 1.26 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
1926 Polatlı Belediye
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Silivrispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kartal Bulvarspor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Edirnespor · 0-0 (D)
Bursa Yıldırımspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskişehirspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucaspor 1928 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Galata | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Orduspor 1967 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Beykoz Anadolu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | İnkılapspor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Silivrispor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.