Etimesgut Belediyesi Atatürk Stadı · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
1926 Polatlı Belediye vs Edirnespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for 1926 Polatlı Belediye and 1.13 for Edirnespor, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives 1926 Polatlı Belediye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1926 Polatlı Belediye win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1926 Polatlı Belediye home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Edirnespor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1926 Polatlı Belediye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for 1926 Polatlı Belediye and 1.13 for Edirnespor, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
1926 Polatlı Belediye
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Silivrispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kartal Bulvarspor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Edirnespor · 0-0 (D)
Edirnespor
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Beykoz İshaklıspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs İnkılapspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorluspor 1947 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etimesgut SK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 1926 Polatlı Belediye · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · 1926 Polatlı Belediye 0-0 Edirnespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2025-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · 1926 Polatlı Belediye 0-1 Edirnespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2025-03-16T11:00:00.000Z · 1926 Polatlı Belediye 2-0 Edirnespor (3. Lig - Group 4)
- 2024-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · 1926 Polatlı Belediye 0-2 Edirnespor (3. Lig - Group 4)
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Galata | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Orduspor 1967 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Beykoz Anadolu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | İnkılapspor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Silivrispor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1926 Polatlı Belediye win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.