· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
22 de Julio vs El Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for 22 de Julio and 0.95 for El Nacional, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives El Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
22 de Julio home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Nacional away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Nacional to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 32% / 32% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for 22 de Julio and 0.95 for El Nacional, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.8%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
22 de Julio
- 2026-10-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs El Nacional · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU Portoviejo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Cumbayá · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs El Nacional · 0-3 (L)
El Nacional
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Ind. Juniors · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Octubre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T20:30:00.000Z · A vs 22 de Julio · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.