· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
22 de Julio vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for 22 de Julio and 1.05 for LDU Portoviejo, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives LDU Portoviejo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
77.7% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
22 de Julio home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
LDU Portoviejo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LDU Portoviejo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 22% / 33% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for 22 de Julio and 1.05 for LDU Portoviejo, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.2%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–210.1%
Recent form
22 de Julio
- 2026-10-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs El Nacional · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU Portoviejo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Cumbayá · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs El Nacional · 0-3 (L)
LDU Portoviejo
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Santo Domingo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs El Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 22 de Julio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.