3K vs GOR Mahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for 3K and 0.92 for GOR Mahia, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives 3K the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

3K win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

3K home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 3K to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for 3K and 0.92 for GOR Mahia, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

3K win58%

Draw23%

GOR Mahia win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.9%
1–110.9%
2–010.7%
2–19.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Migori Youth · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Talanta · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 0-0 (D)

GOR Mahia

2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 3K win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.