3K vs Nairobi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for 3K and 0.92 for Nairobi United, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives 3K the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

3K win

48.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

3K home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 3K to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for 3K and 0.92 for Nairobi United, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

3K win49%

Draw27%

Nairobi United win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–112.6%
2–09.8%
0–09.6%
2–19.0%

Recent form

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Migori Youth · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Talanta · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 0-0 (D)

Nairobi United

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tusker · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 3K win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.