· Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
7 de Abril vs Cardoso Moreira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for 7 de Abril and 1.25 for Cardoso Moreira, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Cardoso Moreira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
7 de Abril home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cardoso Moreira away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardoso Moreira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for 7 de Abril and 1.25 for Cardoso Moreira, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
7 de Abril
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 6-2 (W)
- 2025-11-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-10-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
Cardoso Moreira
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Paduano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Campos AA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Campos AA · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Brescia Clube · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | SE Belford Roxo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RJ | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paduano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Campos AA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.