· Analysis updated 11:42 UTC
7 de Abril vs SE Belford Roxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for 7 de Abril and 1.92 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives SE Belford Roxo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SE Belford Roxo win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
7 de Abril home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SE Belford Roxo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SE Belford Roxo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for 7 de Abril and 1.92 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
7 de Abril
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 6-2 (W)
- 2025-11-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-10-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
SE Belford Roxo
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Paraty · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Resende · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Resende · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SE Belford Roxo win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.