El Coloso · Analysis updated 11:18 UTC
9 de Julio Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 0.98 for Defensores de Belgrano VR, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives 9 de Julio Rafaela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
9 de Julio Rafaela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensores de Belgrano VR away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 9 de Julio Rafaela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 0.98 for Defensores de Belgrano VR, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
9 de Julio Rafaela
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 1-2 (L)
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.