El Coloso · Analysis updated 05:52 UTC
9 de Julio Rafaela vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 1.27 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
9 de Julio Rafaela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
9 de Julio Rafaela
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 1-2 (L)
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T23:45:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 1-0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-28T19:00:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 2-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 0-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-11-16T20:00:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 2-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-11-09T22:15:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 1-0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 1-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-22T20:00:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 2-0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-20T19:15:00.000Z · 9 de Julio Rafaela 1-2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.