Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
9 de Octubre vs San Antonio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for 9 de Octubre and 0.73 for San Antonio, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives 9 de Octubre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
9 de Octubre win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
9 de Octubre home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 9 de Octubre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for 9 de Octubre and 0.73 for San Antonio, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 35%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–015.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
9 de Octubre
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Cuniburo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ind. Juniors · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico FC · 2-2 (D)
San Antonio
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 9 de Octubre win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.