A'Ali vs Bahrain SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for A'Ali and 0.99 for Bahrain SC, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives A'Ali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

A'Ali win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

A'Ali home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahrain SC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates A'Ali to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for A'Ali and 0.99 for Bahrain SC, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

A'Ali win59%

Draw22%

Bahrain SC win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.6%
1–110.4%
2–010.0%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Recent form

A'Ali

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs East Riffa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malkiya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 0-1 (L)

Bahrain SC

2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malkiya · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-17T14:25:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Riffa	5	3	2	0	10	11
2	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	3	1	1	2	10
3	Khalidiya	4	2	2	0	7	8
4	Sitra	5	2	2	1	3	8
5	Al Ahli	4	2	1	1	1	7
6	Al Najma	5	2	1	2	-3	7
7	East Riffa	5	2	1	2	-4	7
8	Muharraq	4	1	2	1	1	5
9	Al-Hidd	5	1	2	2	0	5
10	A'Ali	5	1	1	3	-4	4
11	Manama	5	0	2	3	-8	2
12	Malkiya	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is A'Ali win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.