A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.34 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

A. Italiano home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coquimbo Unido away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coquimbo Unido to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for A. Italiano and 1.34 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

A. Italiano win37%

Draw26%

Coquimbo Unido win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–19.4%
1–09.2%
1–28.3%
2–18.2%

Recent form

A. Italiano

2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-5 (L)

Coquimbo Unido

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	9	5	9	3	32
8	Concepción	24	9	5	10	-1	32
9	Nublense	24	8	8	8	-9	32
10	Huachipato	23	9	4	10	-6	31
11	D. La Serena	24	7	9	8	-5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	-10	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	-10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	-21	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.