· Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
AaB W vs Esbjerg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AaB W and 2.60 for Esbjerg W, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Esbjerg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Esbjerg W win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esbjerg W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Esbjerg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 30% / 19% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AaB W and 2.60 for Esbjerg W, a combined 4.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 80%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
AaB W
Esbjerg W
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Thy ThistedQ W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osterbro W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:15:00.000Z · H vs AaB W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Esbjerg W win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.