· Analysis updated 09:05 UTC
AaB W vs Sundby W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for AaB W and 2.72 for Sundby W, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Sundby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sundby W win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sundby W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sundby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 18% / 17% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for AaB W and 2.72 for Sundby W, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–16.2%
- 0–26.0%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
AaB W
Sundby W
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Naestved W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AaB W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AaB W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sundby W win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.