Aalborg Portland Park · Referee F. Iriskic · Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Aalborg vs FC Fredericia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Aalborg and 0.98 for FC Fredericia, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Aalborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aalborg home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Fredericia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.9%
- 1–013.9%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Aalborg
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Randers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvidovre · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HB Koge · 0-0 (D)
FC Fredericia
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hobro · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hillerød · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 0-3 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2024-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 4-1 FC Fredericia (DBU Pokalen)
- 2024-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 1-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2024-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 1-2 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2024-03-01T17:30:00.000Z · Aalborg 3-2 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 2-3 FC Fredericia (DBU Pokalen)
- 2023-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 4-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-01-13T00:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 2-2 FC Fredericia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · Aalborg 1-3 FC Fredericia (DBU Pokalen)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.