· Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Aalesund II vs Rosenborg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Aalesund II and 2.03 for Rosenborg II, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Aalesund II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aalesund II win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aalesund II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rosenborg II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aalesund II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Aalesund II and 2.03 for Rosenborg II, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–26.2%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Aalesund II
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orkla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 3-2 (W)
Rosenborg II
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Strindheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Melhus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spjelkavik · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · Aalesund II 1-7 Rosenborg II (3. Division - Girone 2)
- 2026-04-24T17:00:00.000Z · Aalesund II 0-5 Rosenborg II (3. Division - Girone 2)
- 2025-10-15T13:30:00.000Z · Aalesund II 1-3 Rosenborg II (3. Division - Girone 2)
- 2025-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · Aalesund II 2-5 Rosenborg II (3. Division - Girone 2)
3. Division - Girone 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 55 |
| 2 | Volda | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 55 |
| 3 | Melhus | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 42 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 41 |
| 5 | Molde II | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosenborg II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 34 |
| 7 | Nardo | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 33 |
| 8 | Herd | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Spjelkavik | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -11 | 29 |
| 10 | NTNUI | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -16 | 29 |
| 11 | Ranheim II | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 26 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Aalesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 25 |
| 14 | Orkla | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aalesund II win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.