Aalesund vs Rosenborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Aalesund and 2.26 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Rosenborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rosenborg win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aalesund home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rosenborg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosenborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Aalesund and 2.26 for Rosenborg, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aalesund win27%

Draw20%

Rosenborg win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.7%
1–17.7%
2–26.9%
1–36.5%
2–16.1%

Recent form

Aalesund

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM Oslo · 1-2 (L)

Rosenborg

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fløya · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	24	19	2	3	39	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	18	2	4	37	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	12	4	8	15	40
5	Tromso	24	11	7	6	9	40
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	1	36
7	Brann	23	9	2	12	3	29
8	Valerenga	24	8	5	11	-7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	-8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	8	5	10	-9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	7	7	9	-6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	7	5	12	-18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	-8	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	-12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	-24	19
16	Start	23	4	4	15	-29	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rosenborg win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.