· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Aarau W vs Basel W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Aarau W and 2.43 for Basel W, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Basel W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Basel W win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aarau W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basel W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Basel W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 18% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Aarau W and 2.43 for Basel W, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–17.7%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Aarau W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen W · 2-2 (D)
Basel W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zürich W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Basel W win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.