· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Aarau W vs Luzern W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Aarau W and 3.95 for Luzern W, a combined total of 5.40. That distribution gives Luzern W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luzern W win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 3.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aarau W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Luzern W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.7%
- 1–46.6%
- 1–55.2%
- 1–25.1%
- 2–34.9%
Recent form
Aarau W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen W · 2-2 (D)
Luzern W
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-20T19:15:00.000Z · Aarau W 3-2 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · Aarau W 1-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Aarau W 4-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · Aarau W 1-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-03-16T15:15:00.000Z · Aarau W 0-2 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Aarau W 0-0 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-04-19T18:00:00.000Z · Aarau W 0-6 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Aarau W 3-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-02-12T15:00:00.000Z · Aarau W 1-3 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2021-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · Aarau W 1-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luzern W win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.