Riisvangen · Referee J. Nielsen · Analysis updated 16:53 UTC
Aarhus Fremad vs Hvidovre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.24 for Hvidovre, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Hvidovre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aarhus Fremad home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hvidovre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hvidovre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 27% / 29% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.24 for Hvidovre, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Aarhus Fremad
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hvidovre · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vendsyssel FF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolding IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 0-0 (D)
Hvidovre
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus Fremad · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hobro · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Fredericia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.