Cepheus Park Randers · Referee Daniel Siebert, Germany · Analysis updated 20:41 UTC
Aarhus vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Aarhus and 2.38 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aarhus home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 14% / 18% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Aarhus and 2.38 for Benfica, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 0–37.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 7.40 | 12.6% | 13.7% | 7.30 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.00 | 31.0% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 86.0% | 86.3% | 1.16 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.5% | 43.7% | 2.29 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.70 | 34.9% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.45 | 65.1% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 56.3% | 1.78 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 83.0% | 82.3% | 1.22 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.7% | 17.7% | 5.65 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aarhus
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silkeborg · 2-2 (D)
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.