Vejlby Stadion · Referee Ante Čulina, Croatia · Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Aarhus and 0.78 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aarhus win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aarhus home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Aarhus and 0.78 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 53.8% vs market 46.7%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.2% | 85.5% | 1.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.3% | 14.5% | 6.90 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 64.3% | 64.3% | 1.56 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.8% | 78.8% | 1.27 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.4% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.62 | 36.1% | 35.7% | 2.80 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aarhus
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aarhus win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.