Tårnby Stadion · Analysis updated 11:38 UTC
AB Tårnby vs Glostrup Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for AB Tårnby and 2.35 for Glostrup, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives AB Tårnby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AB Tårnby home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AB Tårnby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 19% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for AB Tårnby and 2.35 for Glostrup, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 83%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 3–25.7%
- 2–15.7%
- 2–35.2%
- 1–25.2%
Recent form
AB Tårnby
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Glostrup · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frederikssund · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs LSF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Avarta · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Herlev · 2-3 (L)
Glostrup
- 2026-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AB Tårnby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Herlev · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Næstved II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Såby · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Denmark Series - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avarta | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 40 |
| 2 | Glostrup | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 40 |
| 3 | Tårnby FF | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Frederikssund | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 25 |
| 5 | Espergærde | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | Såby | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | LSF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Herlev | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 9 | Næstved II | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -16 | 20 |
| 10 | AB Tårnby | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.