Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Abahani vs Fakirerpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Abahani and 0.87 for Fakirerpool, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Abahani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Abahani win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Abahani home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fakirerpool away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Abahani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Abahani and 0.87 for Fakirerpool, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Abahani
- 2026-10-23T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Chattogram · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dhaka Wanderers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chattogram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs PWD Sports Club · 0-0 (D)
Fakirerpool
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dhaka Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Bashundhara Kings · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · H vs PWD Sports Club · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Federation Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fakirerpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Fortis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Abahani win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.