ABB vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for ABB and 1.40 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives ABB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

ABB win

54.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ABB home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario de Vinto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ABB win55%

Draw21%

Universitario de Vinto win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.6%
3–16.7%
2–06.6%
2–26.5%

Recent form

ABB

2026-09-25T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-2 (L)

Universitario de Vinto

2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · ABB 2-5 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
2025-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · ABB 0-0 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
2025-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · ABB 0-3 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
2025-09-25T21:30:00.000Z · ABB 2-0 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
2025-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · ABB 0-2 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Always Ready	21	14	6	1	36	48
2	Bolívar	21	15	3	3	33	48
3	The Strongest	21	12	6	3	16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	9	8	4	14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	10	33
6	Aurora	21	7	10	4	4	31
7	Guabirá	21	8	5	8	-10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	8	4	9	2	28
9	Blooming	21	6	9	6	7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	7	4	10	-10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	7	3	11	-16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	6	3	12	-19	21
13	ABB	21	6	2	13	-15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	5	3	13	-15	18
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	3	8	10	-13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	4	5	12	-24	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ABB win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.