Tsentralniy Stadion · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Abdish-Ata vs Ozgon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Abdish-Ata and 2.20 for Ozgon, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Ozgon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ozgon win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Abdish-Ata home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ozgon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ozgon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Abdish-Ata and 2.20 for Ozgon, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–27.1%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Abdish-Ata
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ozgon · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Talant · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs OshMU Aldier · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 1-4 (L)
Ozgon
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Abdish-Ata · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishkek City · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Talant · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · H vs OshMU Aldier · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Toktogul · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Abdish-Ata 0-5 Ozgon (Premier League)
- 2026-05-03T14:30:00.000Z · Abdish-Ata 1-2 Ozgon (Premier League)
- 2025-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Abdish-Ata 1-0 Ozgon (Premier League)
- 2025-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Abdish-Ata 5-2 Ozgon (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 55 |
| 2 | Alga | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 55 |
| 3 | Muras United | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 53 |
| 4 | Asia Talas | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 52 |
| 5 | Ozgon | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 51 |
| 6 | Alay | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | -6 | 36 |
| 8 | Talant | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | Bishkek City | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 10 | Toktogul | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Dordoi Bishkek | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 28 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -15 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -29 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 26 | 1 | 6 | 19 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ozgon win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.