Pittodrie Stadium · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Aberdeen vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Aberdeen and 0.93 for Falkirk, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Aberdeen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aberdeen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Falkirk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aberdeen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Aberdeen and 0.93 for Falkirk, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.2%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
Falkirk
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 1-1 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2025-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.