Pittodrie Stadium · Referee J. Beaton · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Aberdeen and 1.70 for Kilmarnock, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Aberdeen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aberdeen win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aberdeen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kilmarnock away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aberdeen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Aberdeen and 1.70 for Kilmarnock, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
Kilmarnock
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aberdeen win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.