Park Avenue · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Aberystwyth Town and 0.70 for Llantwit Major, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Aberystwyth Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aberystwyth Town win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aberystwyth Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llantwit Major away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aberystwyth Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Aberystwyth Town and 0.70 for Llantwit Major, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 58.0% vs market 45.9%, edge +12.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 58.0% | 1.72 | +12.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 34.8% | 36.3% | 2.75 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 13.8% | 14.0% | 7.14 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.4% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 63.9% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.3% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.0% | 86.0% | 1.16 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -12.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aberystwyth Town
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Caerau (Ely) · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontypridd Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea University · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Caerphilly Athletic · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 4-0 (W)
Llantwit Major
- 2026-10-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontypridd Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Treowen Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · Aberystwyth Town 5-1 Llantwit Major (FAW Championship)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · Aberystwyth Town 2-2 Llantwit Major (FAW Championship)
- 2025-07-26T13:30:00.000Z · Aberystwyth Town 2-1 Llantwit Major (FAW Championship)
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aberystwyth Town win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.