Alexandria Stadium · Referee I. Mohamed · Analysis updated 11:25 UTC
Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.75 for Al Ittihad, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Abu Qair Semad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Abu Qair Semad home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ittihad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Abu Qair Semad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.75 for Al Ittihad, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–017.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Abu Qair Semad
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs National Bank of Egypt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raya Ghazl · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tersana · 0-0 (D)
Al Ittihad
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AL Masry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asyut Petrol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.