Borg El Arab Stadium · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.75 for Asyut Petrol, a combined total of 1.30. That distribution gives Asyut Petrol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Abu Qair Semad home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 24% / 40% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.75 for Asyut Petrol, a combined 1.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 14% and both teams to score at 22%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.3%
- 0–120.4%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Abu Qair Semad
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs National Bank of Egypt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raya Ghazl · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tersana · 0-0 (D)
Asyut Petrol
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.