· Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
AC Douane vs Nouadhibou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for AC Douane and 0.82 for Nouadhibou, a combined total of 1.66. That distribution gives AC Douane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AC Douane home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nouadhibou away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 33% / 35% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for AC Douane and 0.82 for Nouadhibou, a combined 1.66 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.9%
- 1–016.0%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
AC Douane
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gendrim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hafia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hafia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs N'Zidane · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Gendrim · 0-1 (L)
Nouadhibou
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vipers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Inter Nouakchott · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Nouakchott King's · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Police · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pompiers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Police | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | N'Zidane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Gendrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Armée | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | SNIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Chemal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nouadhibou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nouakchott Academie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Nouakchott King's | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Kédia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 | AC Douane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.