Hybel Arena Horsens · Referee J. Hansen · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
AC Horsens vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for AC Horsens and 1.49 for Aarhus, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aarhus win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AC Horsens home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for AC Horsens and 1.49 for Aarhus, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 53.7% vs market 44.3%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +9.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 49.2% | 2.03 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.9% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 76.9% | 1.30 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 50.9% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AC Horsens
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Næsby · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-2 (L)
Aarhus
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silkeborg · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Brondby | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Odense | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aarhus win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.