AC Malcantone vs Gambarogno - Contone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for AC Malcantone and 1.67 for Gambarogno - Contone, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Gambarogno - Contone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AC Malcantone home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gambarogno - Contone away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gambarogno - Contone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for AC Malcantone and 1.67 for Gambarogno - Contone, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AC Malcantone win36%

Draw23%

Gambarogno - Contone win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–28.6%
2–18.0%
2–26.7%
0–16.7%

Recent form

AC Malcantone

2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Muri · 1-2 (L)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sursee · 2-1 (W)
2025-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rothrist · 1-1 (D)
2025-05-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cham II · 4-1 (W)
2025-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 1-3 (L)

Gambarogno - Contone

2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-3 (L)
2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lachen / Altendorf · 2-2 (D)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-4 (L)
2025-05-28T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Thalwil · 2-0 (W)
2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-04-30T18:30:00.000Z · AC Malcantone 4-0 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 3)
2024-10-23T18:30:00.000Z · AC Malcantone 0-1 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 3)

2. Liga Interregional - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zug	28	20	6	2	49	66
2	Locarno	28	16	6	6	36	54
3	Buochs	28	16	6	6	27	54
4	Sursee	28	15	5	8	14	50
5	Gambarogno - Contone	28	13	8	7	14	47
6	AC Malcantone	28	11	8	9	7	41
7	Lachen / Altendorf	28	11	7	10	-2	40
8	Emmenbrücke	28	12	4	12	-10	40
9	Thalwil	28	11	6	11	-7	39
10	Ibach	28	8	7	13	-6	31
11	Cham II	28	7	10	11	-10	31
12	Emmen	28	8	6	14	-18	30
13	Rothrist	28	7	8	13	-22	29
14	Brunnen	28	5	9	14	-12	24
15	Muri	28	5	8	15	-30	23
16	Goldau	28	3	8	17	-30	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.