AC Milan vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.68 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AC Milan win

68.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AC Milan home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AC Milan and 0.68 for Genoa, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AC Milan win69%

Draw20%

Genoa win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–013.8%
2–013.8%
1–19.3%
2–19.3%
3–09.2%

Recent form

AC Milan

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)

Genoa

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2026-01-08T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2025-05-05T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2024-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2024-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-3 Genoa (Serie A)
2023-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2022-04-15T19:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2022-01-13T20:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-1 Genoa (Coppa Italia)
2021-12-01T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2021-04-18T10:30:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AC Milan win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.