Optus Stadium · Referee L. Keevers · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
AC Milan vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for AC Milan and 2.00 for Inter, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AC Milan home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for AC Milan and 2.00 for Inter, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
AC Milan
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Inter
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Inter (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-08T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-0 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-11-23T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-0 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-04-23T19:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Inter (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-04-02T19:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Inter (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-02-02T17:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-01-06T19:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-2 Inter (Super Cup)
- 2024-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2024-04-22T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2023-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-5 Inter (Serie A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.